Research
Working Papers
- Automated Survey Harmonization via Source-Consistent Entity Resolution.
Abstract
Survey harmonization is a common challenge in applied social science research, particularly for multi-wave surveys in which question wording varies across rounds. Existing approaches rely on manual coding, making them difficult to scale and reproduce. We develop a fully automated method by framing survey harmonization as a problem of multi-source entity resolution. The approach combines sentence-embedding similarity with a source-constrained agglomerative clustering algorithm that enforces a one-per-source matching rule. Evaluated on Afrobarometer data, the method achieves a precision of 0.941 and a recall of 0.969 (F1 = 0.955), closely matching human-coded results while operating at substantially lower cost. Applied to Latinobarometro, the method performs comparably, achieving a precision of 0.945, a recall of 0.999, and an F1 of 0.971. The procedure scales efficiently to thousands of items and enables the construction of harmonized indices across survey rounds. More broadly, the framework applies to data integration problems involving multiple sources without reliable identifiers.
- Climate Shocks and Protest in Nigeria.
Abstract
This paper investigates how climate shocks influence protest behavior in Nigeria from 1997-2024. Canonical theories of protest indicate that protests are most likely to occur in well-populated, urban areas, yet more rural, agrarian areas are the most vulnerable to climate shocks and therefore may be more likely to protest after experiencing extreme heat or variable rainfall. Using protest data from the Armed Conflict Location Dataset (ACLED) and high-resolution temperature and precipitation data, I examine how climate shocks influence the amount of protest in Nigeria. I find that temperature shocks increase expected protest count only when they occur in agrarian communities, especially during the growing season. This finding is suggestive of a livelihood degradation mechanism where climate shocks increase food insecurity while simultaneously decreasing future income in agrarian areas. Shocks in agrarian communities then create a temporary window for protest in areas that traditionally are less likely to experience protest.
- Shocking Beliefs: Climate Shocks and Their Effects on Climate Change Attitudes in Africa.
Abstract
How does exposure to climate shocks effect belief in the negative effects of climate change? In this paper I analyze how exposure to extreme heat and variable rainfall affect how individuals view climate change across Africa. While numerous studies examine exposure to climate change and its effect on beliefs, particularly in the United States and the United Kingdom, little work focuses on developing countries where climate change is less politicized. I vary climate shock exposure from one to 12 months and find that short-run and longer-run exposure to drought significantly increase the odds that an individual believes that climate change is harming their country. This suggests that experiential learning is occurring in contexts lacking partisan or ideological polarization. That is, in the absence of political cues, individuals across Africa are more likely to believe that climate change will negatively harm their country after exposure to extreme heat and drought.
- Competitive Climate: Climate Shocks and the Strategic Expansion of Vote Buying in Africa.
Abstract
This paper examines how climate shocks shape vote buying across Sub-Saharan Africa. We find that climate shocks do not have a uniform effect, but rather they significantly increase the odds of vote buying in countries with competitive electoral systems. This suggests that climate change may lead to greater vote buying in countries that are relatively democratic, as their politicians seek to offer relief to their constituents in exchange for maintaining office. Unlike other studies of vote buying, we find minimal support privileging economic vulnerability. Climate shocks do not appear to increase vote buying targeted at the most vulnerable. Our results suggest that politicians utilize vote buying as a form of constituency-service in the wake of extreme temperature and drought. .
- Climate Shocks and Preferences for Taxation and Public Services in Africa.
Abstract
How do climate shocks shape public support for taxation and government services in developing countries? Existing political economy theories suggest that increased economic risk should raise demand for redistribution and public goods provision, yet this relationship may not hold in contexts characterized by weak state capacity and low trust. Using Afrobarometer Round 8 data merged with high-resolution temperature and precipitation shocks, we examine how climate variability influences tax-service preferences across Africa. We find a dynamic temporal pattern: temperature shocks in the short term, 0-3 months, significantly reduce support for higher taxes and expanded public services, consistent with immediate liquidity constraints, while shocks in the medium term, 4-6 months, increase support, suggesting that individuals update their preferences as the economic consequences of shocks materialize. However, these effects are heterogeneous. Farmers and more deprived individuals are more likely to support less taxation following recent shocks. These findings challenge standard risk-based theories of redistribution by showing that in weak-state contexts, heightened vulnerability does not necessarily translate into greater demand for government intervention, highlighting the importance of state capacity and trust in shaping political responses to climate change.
- Rewarding Ambitious Climate Pledges.
Abstract
This article examines whether the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) states are rewarding developing countries for submitting more ambitious carbon mitigation pledges to slow the impact of climate change as a part of the Paris Climate Accords (COP21). It contributes to the overall literature on aid allocation in general and provides much-needed nuance to the understudied relationship between aid and the environment. Using aid, climate, and governance data, we analyze aid commitments from 2013-2020. The results show that there is a distinction between aid allocations in the aggregate and aid from individual donors. As a group, Development Assistance Committee (DAC) donors appear to give less aid to countries with ambitious climate pledges. However, there is significant variation in aid commitments from individual donors indicating that rewarding climate policies could be related to factors within donor countries. The findings also give support to both the need-based and merit-based aid literature as countries that are more vulnerable to climate change and those more prepared for climate change have greater aid commitments allocated to them. Curiously there is no relationship between ambitious climate pledges and environmental aid in particular. We conclude with various interpretations of these findings.
Other Current Projects
- Green Aid and Chinese Soft Power in Africa.